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- Given the targeting of energy infrastructure in Ukraine, just one incidence of which plunged five million Ukrainians into darkness, it seems likely that Putin bombed Nord Stream 1 and 2 simply to terrorize Europe. He seems to have thereby declared a full-scale energy war, but with cannons he no longer has cannon balls and gunpowder with which to load or fire. Maybe making 2023 and beyond harder for his own people and all of Europe by ensuring that Russia cannot turn back on the gas taps when he’s gone is Putin’s form of cementing a legacy. - Source: Internet
- There may be no clearer sign of an enemy in retreat than his scuttling his own ships, which is what Putin appears to have done on Monday by blowing up the main pipelines for exporting Russia’s natural gas to Europe. Putin may be in effect declaring an all-out energy war by completely cutting off fossil fuel exports to the West, but by waiting seven months after invading Ukraine to do so he has lost the advantage. Although the energy crisis will rage on, Russia has lost the energy war. - Source: Internet
- In short, Putin has caused considerable economic damage by triggering the energy crisis, but absent unforeseen crises Europe should make it through winter. As such, there is no longer any benefit for him or for Russia to blowing up Nord Stream 1 and 2. There is no gas running through them to Europe, so no immediate fuel supply shortage will ensue. Natural gas prices did jump on the news of the explosions, and because of Gazprom’s threat to cut off the remaining 40 bcm of gas transiting through Ukraine as well, but beyond that very short-term consequence there is little leverage to be gained by the sabotage. That lack of logic is the single factor making anyone pause before attributing the explosions to Russia —they just don’t make much strategic or tactical sense. - Source: Internet
- A series of three explosions ruptured parts of both Nord Stream 1 and 2 on September 26 in what seems to have been an act of coordinated sabotage. A possible fourth leak was also just identified. The natural gas pipelines, each running from Russia into Poland with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, were a key part of Russia’s efforts to wield energy leverage over Europe and to hurt Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 in particular was intended only as a way of bypassing Ukraine so that Kyiv would be deprived the roughly $3 billion annual transit fees for moving the gas of Russian state-owned giant Gazprom into the European Union. Meanwhile, Russia earned $120 billion per year from energy exports to Europe in the ten years leading up to the invasion, much of which came from natural gas sales through Nord Stream 1, and which constituted two-thirds of the Russian state budget. - Source: Internet
- More likely, but still entirely speculation, is that the Russian leader is merely exacting revenge, blowing up the ship under him in a fatalistic effort to inflict as much damage as possible before he does down with it. Igor Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv, described the September 10-11 hits on the power plants in his region as “revenge by the Russian aggressor for the successes of our army at the front, in particular, in the Kharkiv region.” The likely bombing of Russia’s own natural gas pipelines seems like solid evidence Mr. Terekhov is right. - Source: Internet
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